Last update - 3/3/2020 - scroll to bottom for details
Durham Region's real estate market opened 2020 with prices and sales volume at higher levels than last year and last month.
This is highly unusual, as prices normally follow a pattern of peaks in the spring season and lows in the winter months.
Sales volume has also picked up in pace, which is indicative of the number of buyers that are now taking action as the market tightens.
One key factor that has and will continue to impact the local market is a substantial lack of supply. Active listings are substantially down from this time last year.
Prices in Durham increased by 13.5% since January 2019 and rose 2.4% since December 2019. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's (TRREB) overall market posted an 12.2% annual increase (+0.2% monthly).
Average prices for all of TRREB were 839,363 as shown in the above chart (red line). The price point is still close to the high for the past year, though off the peak in October.
The latest market statistics show the average Durham property at $655,781 - up from last month's 640,269 by $15,512 (+2.4%).
Active listings in Durham Region were 905 in January. That is a 29.8% decrease from last year and a 3.0% increase from December. The drop in active listings represents a significant tightening of the market. Currently, there are only 1.9 months of inventory, increasing buyer competition and could help to drive prices higher at a moderate pace.
The overall TRREB market had a 32% decrease in active listings from last year.
Sales volume in Durham Region increased 15.4% from last year with 586 units sold versus 508 last January (TRREB +15.4%). It was up from December by 13.1%. (TRREB +4.6%). A slowdown is normally seen this time of year, as December through February are typically the lowest volume months, so we may see sustained volume through February and an early jump to the spring rush.
The time a property takes to sell is called DOM or days on market. It was 31 in January, showing a very strong pace to sales for this time of year. This figure tends to increase after the spring market before dropping again in the fall and rising again in winter months.
Another indicator of demand is sale price compared to list price. It was 99% in Durham in January, again showing high levels of buyer demand.
These factors combined are a good barometer for sellers, as it shows that not only is current inventory moving at a good pace, but it is also selling at a price that is very close to asking.
Prices By Home Style
What are homes selling for in Durham Region Cities?
Oshawa showed continued increases in prices from December (+0.3%) as well as annually (+12.8%). Sales volume was up from 2019 (+16.7% annual change) and monthly (+30.0%).
Detached homes had an 13.9% increase in average price annually.
Whitby's sales volume jumped from December (+12.5%) and was up strongly from last year (+30.1%). Prices were slightly down (-0.2%) from December and again very strong (+17.2%) annually.
Detached homes were up 15.1% annually.
Clarington's sales volume increased (+9.9%) monthly, and was down (-11.9%) annually. Prices were up (+2.9%) monthly and annually (+11.9%).
Detached homes were up 12.2% annually.
In Ajax, volume was up (+17.4%) annually and down (-19.0%) monthly. Prices increased (+9.17%) annually in Ajax and monthly (+0.5%).
Pickering increased in volume monthly (+11.5%) and was up (+36.0%) year-over-year. It had increases in price (+11.2%) annually and (+11.5%) monthly.
Townhomes (+19.2%) and condo apartments (+21.7%) saw substantial annual increases in price.
Latest Market Update - Mar 3/2020
The market has further tightened in Durham Region, with selling prices at or above list price in a majority of communities.
The sales pace was 31.1 units per day, and 903 reported so far for the month - a 55.4% increase over last year and a 54.1% increase over last month. These figures will rise, as brokerages continue to report transactions completed
Inventory has reached critical lows - now at just 1.2 months, with Oshawa, Whitby and Ajax at the lowest levels.
Prices are keeping pace with the demand - at over 658,000 in Durham Region. Last month, the average was 655,781. This is supposed to be a low point for prices in the normal seasonal cycle.
Buyers will find multiple offer scenarios very common right now. They are highly advised to get prepared - have their mortgage preapproval ready before looking at homes, and get out to see those new listings immediately, not when it is convenient!
Sellers should be considering listing now or very soon. The inventory shortage situation will likely stabilize during or after the spring market once enough new listings pop up to quench the demand, and the opportunity to have multiple offers on the average listing will subside.
If you are interested in seeing values for an area not shown or are interested in other figures, please comment below or contact me. As always, give me a call anytime if you would like to discuss further without any obligation.
Broker, REALTOR®, RE/MAX Impact Realty
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Member, Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
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