Durham Region Real Estate Daily Market Update
Last updated January 17, 2025, 10:10 a.m.
Durham Region Real Estate Market Report - monthly
We have reached the middle of January 2025, and the Durham Region real estate market shows significant shifts that signal a strong spring market. Here's what you should know about the current trends and what to expect:
Spring Market 2025 Projections:
Robust Market Expected: Early indicators suggest a lively and fast-paced spring real estate market in Durham Region in 2025.
Mortgage Rates and Market Dynamics:
Lower Mortgage Rates: A significant decrease in mortgage rates will stimulate buyer activity.
Inventory Levels: A sharp reduction in inventory has created a seller's market, with some segments selling quickly due to high demand and low supply.
Seller's Strategy for 2025:
Realistic Pricing: Sellers, especially in higher price segments, northern areas, and condos, should price properties competitively. With fewer multiple offers, effective pricing and marketing are key.
Market Presentation: A strategic approach to presentation and exposure is crucial to attract buyers.
Sales and Inventory Trends:
Sales Volume: Sales are yet to recover from the holidays, which is in line with seasonal trends.
Inventory Drop: A 47% drop in listings since September 2024 has intensified buyer competition.
Current Market Conditions:
Multiple Offers: Properties in the lower to mid-price ranges often see multiple offers, pushing competition.
Price Alignment: Selling prices align closely with list prices, showing a competitive market.
Interest Rate Movements:
Bank of Canada's Rate Cut: The benchmark rate was lowered to 3.25% on December 11, enhancing consumer confidence. Further cuts are expected. The next announcement is scheduled for January 29.
Mortgage Considerations:
Rate Volatility: Buyers and those nearing mortgage renewals should closely watch rates.
Insurance Changes: The cap for insured mortgages has increased to $1.5 million, enabling buyers with smaller down payments to enter the higher-priced market.
By keeping abreast of these market trends, buyers and sellers in Durham Region can strategize effectively for the spring real estate market. Stay tuned to make the most of this market as it unfolds.
Supply ranges from low to moderate, with 4.0 months of inventory (MOI) for the entire region. This means that at the current pace of sales, with no new listings, all inventory would be sold within this time frame.
Durham Region Real Estate Market January 2025
In January, transactions for all types of homes reported thus far had sale prices averaging 904,244 in Durham Region, with the average property selling at 98.6% of list price (SP/LP). This is down 0.9% from last month and is up 1.4% from last January.
Durham Region currently leads the Greater Toronto Area based on buyer competitiveness (highest sale price to list price ratio) and affordability (lowest average sale price).
Here is a chart showing the average daily selling price of detached homes over the past two months: Prices have been stable recently.
The following map reflects this month's average selling price of detached homes, just over 1,035,000.
Looking at the top chart's selling price to list price ratios, a few communities in south Durham show sales at levels above list price. The following chart shows how market tightness rose over early 2024, before easing since.
Some listings at low to mid-price points are posted with offer dates, and no offers will be considered until that date. This is intended to pressure buyers (given the shortage of listings) and generate multiple offers.
The selling price to list price ratio (SPLP) has averaged near the 100% mark, indicating that about half of homes sell above their list price. In those cases, more than one offer is being placed on properties, signalling that multiple offer scenarios are still in the mix - just not with the same frequency as before the recent downturn.
Note the blue bars in the chart, demonstrating SPLP averages below 100%, versus red bars, indicating averages above 100%. Those red bars are becoming more dominant, showing buyer competition on listings has been strong (mostly in lower and middle price points).
Days on market (DOM) are averaging 36.9 this month. DOM is the number of days it takes for a property to be sold firm, or without any remaining conditions.
This figure typically rises in the winter season and is lowest during the spring peak.
Should new listings rise faster than current sales, there would be more inventory for the pool of buyers to choose from, which lowers the sale price to list price ratio and months of inventory, which brings us closer to a balanced market.
In late September, active listings in Durham Region climbed to a 13-year high and have come down considerably since then, as buyers react to lower interest rates and positive economic news. Listing inventory is rising now that the holiday season is behind us.
The high number of active listings in some segments makes competitive strategy more essential when selling a property. When listings are more scarce (lower price points), prospective buyers must reduce expectations on location, property condition, etc. They also will be pressured in competitive situations to remove conditions on their offers.
The sales rate is down by 30.5% compared to last month and 37.1% compared to last January, with 10.8 daily transactions.
The following chart shows the daily sales volume for the past 2 months.
Buyers will find multiple offer situations in some locations, particularly at lower price points. They are highly advised to get prepared - have their mortgage preapproval ready before looking at homes, and be prepared to view homes via photos and virtual tours as soon as they reach the market. With interest rates dropping and mortgage rules changing, knowing your options is more important than ever. Speak with your agent to discuss the process to move forward.
Sellers should plan to put their homes on the market soon and work with their agents to set them apart from competing listings while reaching the widest possible audience. This is particularly important at mid to high price points.
If you are interested in seeing values for an area not shown or are interested in other figures, please comment below or contact me. As always, reach out anytime to discuss this further without obligation.
More Durham Region and Area Real Estate Articles
Ontario Property Tax Rates by City 2024
Durham Region Market Report - December 2024
Durham Region Property Tax Calculator
My other blogs contain market reports and information for surrounding areas—see the menu for details.
About the Author
John Owen, Broker, RE/MAX Impact
John is an award-winning RE/MAX broker based in Courtice, ON and serving a wide area from east GTA to Northumberland.
Direct - 905-434-0067
Email - johnowen@remax.net
Member - RE/MAX Hall of Fame, Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
The figures shown are for the following property types unless otherwise specified: detached, semi-detached, condo townhouse, condo apartment, link, att/row/townhouse, co-op apartment, detached condo and co-ownership apartment.
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