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Durham Region Real Estate Market Report

Posted on September 15, 2024 by John Owen

Posted in Ajax, Clarington, Durham Region, Oshawa, Pickering, sales, Scugog, Whitby

Durham Region Real Estate Daily Market Update

Last updated September 15, 2024, 11:00 a.m.
Durham Region Real Estate Market Report - August 2024

The real estate market in Durham Region now has the highest inventory levels since 2011 (May 2011 - 2429 active listings) with many potential buyers waiting for lower mortgage rates and positive economic news before they purchase.

The market is more balanced, as listing inventory has increased in several areas and price points as sales volume lags. The result is a scenario that gives buyers a short-term opportunity to enter the market with an advantage over sellers in some locations and price ranges.

Sellers should be realistic about expectations, especially in the middle and higher price ranges and condo apartments in all price ranges. Sale prices are far closer to list prices than just a few months ago, and price reductions are commonplace when listings do not sell within market norms.

New Listing - 72 Cortland Crescent, Quinte West

Sales volume aligns with seasonal expectations and is similar to the low levels experienced last year. At least some of that can be attributed to persistently high mortgage rates, combined with tough qualification rules, which eat into buyer budgets.

Listing inventory is very close to its highest levels on record, though still somewhat low in south Durham relative to sales volume.

Multiple offer situations are still common in lower and middle price ranges, as buyers scramble to compete for homes within their budgets. Read on for more details on how average selling prices are now close to parity with list prices.

The September 4 Bank of Canada announcement to cut the benchmark overnight rate to 4.25% helped further bolster consumer confidence. Economists and industry professionals anticipate that rates will drop even more as the year progresses. The next announcement is scheduled for October 23.

Recently, fixed mortgage rates have been dropping, tied to the 5-year Canada Bond Yield rate. If you are shopping for a home, or have a mortgage renewal coming up, keep a close eye on rate offerings, and check with your mortgage broker regularly, as they have been changing recently.

Durham Region Real Estate Market Report Daily 2024

Supply ranges from low to moderate, with 4.1 months of inventory (MOI) for the entire region. This means that at the current pace of sales, with no new listings, all inventory would be sold within this time frame.

Durham Region Real Estate Market September 2024

In September, transactions reported thus far had sale prices averaging 887,970 in Durham Region, with the average property selling at 100.3% of list price (SP/LP). This is a drop of 2.2% from last month and a 2.0% decrease from last September.

Durham Region has the strongest market stats in the Greater Toronto Area for sale price to list price ratio (highest) and affordability (lowest average sale price).

Real estate prices Durham Region 2024 chart

Here is a look at average detached home selling prices daily over the past 2 months: Prices have been receding slightly over this period.

Durham Region Detached Home Prices Daily bar chart 2024

This month's average selling price of detached homes this month is just over 990,000, as reflected in the following map.

Detached Home Prices Durham Region 2024 map

Looking at the top chart's selling price to list price ratios, a few communities in south Durham show sales at levels above list price. The following chart shows how market tightness slowed over most of 2022 and picked up in early 2023, before dropping this summer. It is now starting to edge higher.

Durham Region Market Report Selling Price to List Price Chart 2024

Some listings at low to mid price points are posted with offer dates, where no offers will be considered until that date. This is intended to pressure buyers (given the shortage of listings) and generate multiple offers.

Durham Region sale to list price ratio daily 2024

The selling price to list price ratio (SPLP) has averaged near the 100% mark, indicating that about half of homes sell above their list price. In those cases, more than one offer is being placed on properties, signalling that multiple offer scenarios are still in the mix - just not with the same frequency as before the recent downturn.

Note the blue bars in the chart, demonstrating SPLP averages below 100%, versus red bars, indicating averages above 100%. Those red bars are less dominant than earlier in the year, showing buyer competition on listings has come down (except at low price points).

Days on market (DOM) are averaging 24.9 this month. DOM is the number of days it takes for a property to be sold firm, or without any remaining conditions.

This figure typically rises in the winter season and is lowest during the spring peak.

Should new listings rise at a pace that is faster than current sales, then there would be more inventory for the pool of buyers to choose from, which will have the effect of reducing the sale price to list price ratio, then months of inventory stat, which leans the market closer to a balanced market.

Active listings dropped to seasonal low levels in January. They have climbed since then, creating more balance in the marketplace. Active listings are now very near a record high in Durham Region.

The high number of active listings makes competitive strategy more essential when selling a property. When listings were more scarce, (including now but at lower price points) prospective buyers were compelled to reduce expectations on location, property condition, etc. They also will be pressured in competitive situations to remove conditions on their offers.

The sales rate dropped by 17.3% compared to last month and is down 9.7% compared to last year, with 19.5 daily transactions.

The following chart shows the daily sales volume for the past 2 months. Sales volume is usually lower in the summer than in spring and autumn.

Durham Region real estate sales volume 2024

Search Durham Region listings with sold prices

Buyers will find multiple offer situations in some locations, particularly at lower price points. They are highly advised to get prepared - have their mortgage preapproval ready before looking at homes, and be prepared to view homes via photos and virtual tours as soon as they reach the market. With interest rates dropping and mortgage qualification rules under review, knowing your options is more important than ever. Speak with your agent to discuss the process to move forward.

Sellers should plan to put their homes on the market soon and work with their agents to set them apart from competing listings while reaching the widest possible audience. This is particularly important at mid to high price points.

If you are interested in seeing values for an area not shown or are interested in other figures, please comment below or contact me. As always, reach out anytime to discuss this further without obligation.

More Durham Region and Area Real Estate Articles

Durham Region Property Tax Rates - GTA and Ontario

Durham Region Market Report - August 2024

Durham Region Property Tax Calculator

Market reports and information for surrounding areas can be found on my other blogs - see the menu for details.

About the Author

John Owen RE/MAX Courtice Oshawa Clarington

John Owen, Broker, RE/MAX Impact

John is an award-winning RE/MAX broker based in Courtice, ON.

Direct - 905-434-0067
Email - johnowen@remax.net

Member - RE/MAX Hall of Fame, Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

The figures shown are for the following property types unless otherwise specified: detached, semi-detached, condo townhouse, condo apartment, link, att/row/townhouse, co-op apartment, detached condo and co-ownership apartment.

Comments:

Steve on Aug 12, 2019 12:23 PM posted:

So with the GM plant closure imminent and our bubble edging towards correction, Oshawa will surely decline much further in value in the coming years. Could this be a true statement?

John Owen on Aug 12, 2019 6:48 PM posted:

Hi Steve - news of the GM situation is from 2018, and has had very little impact on the local real estate market. Since the spring/summer of 2017, when the government imposed a number of measures to cool the market (along with changes to mortgage qualification rules that has prevented many families from being able to qualify to buy a home), the local market has been doing quite well. Given the relative shortage of supply in the GTA, combined with having some of the lowest prices in the region, the outlook for Oshawa's market is quite bright. Other factors helping bring demand to the local market include a high demand for student accommodation, expansion of the 407 and 412/418, and planned expansion of GO train service with more stations in both Oshawa and Clarington. Of course, no one can say what the market is going to do with certainty, but aside from economic factors that would trigger a wider slowdown (like a large interest rate increase, or recession), things look very good for Oshawa. John Owen, Broker RE/MAX Impact

Vish Patel on Jun 22, 2020 12:30 AM posted:

Hi! Do you think this pandemic and the super high unemployment rate which is over 10 percent will finally burst the property price bubble?

John Owen on Jun 22, 2020 10:10 AM posted:

Hi Vish - that's a good question, and the media has been speculating on this issue on a regular basis. Adding to the mix is CMHC forecasting up to an 18% drop in property values across Canada by mid-2021. They also tightened qualifying criteria for mortgages insured by them. My focus is on the local market, and current results don't align with the idea of the market going into a deep downturn. We did see a large drop in sales volume in April/May and a much smaller drop in prices. As of mid-June, both sales volume and prices had recovered to pre-COVID levels. COVID has created a pause in our market. The economy continues to open back up, and unemployment levels will come back down. Read my daily market updates to see more, and watch for a big turnaround in the June 2020 results.

Tifanny on Aug 30, 2020 10:00 AM posted:

Hello John! Why is Bowmanville which is further more east than Oshawa selling homes for more money ?

John Owen, Broker RE/MAX Impact on Aug 30, 2020 10:53 AM posted:

Hi Tiffany, Bowmanville (and Clarington overall) has higher selling prices than Oshawa overall, largely because there are neighbourhoods within central and south Oshawa that typically have smaller and older homes with much lower selling prices. These areas contain a lot of houses too, so the sales in those areas bring the averages down overall. If we looked at more specific areas or home types and ages, we would get a different picture.

Aaron on Nov 20, 2020 9:51 AM posted:

As of Nov 20, 2020, the Durham Region Real Estate - Residential numbers from 2020-11-01 to 2020-11-16 seems to have an issue. I am looking at Brock. Under "All Types", I see 16 units with avg selling price of 909,094. Under Detached, I see 13 units with an average selling price of 730,092. I don't see any condos or townhomes for Brock, but those extra 3 townhomes/condos would've had to sell for millions to make these figures work. I really appreciate this data that you have put together. It is a fantastic source of current info for the Durham Region real estate market.

John Owen, Broker RE/MAX Impact on Nov 20, 2020 10:27 AM posted:

Hi Aaron, thank you for the positive feedback! In the sales data that you mentioned for Brock, the numbers are correct. The 3 transactions not shown are for types of property not summarized in the chart. In this case, there was one farm and two parcels of vacant land. I provide the data for the most common types of listings in the graphic, as they are the most relevant to most sellers and buyers. There are even more types that listings could be categorized that do not have enough sales volume to be statistically relevant.

M. Ainslie on Dec 21, 2020 7:45 AM posted:

John Owen, thank you for the stats. Very much appreciated. I've been carefully watching the market (with your help) and am very grateful in my decision to have held off for a year once Covid-19 hit early March 2020. It was a gamble, especially with CMHC's dire predictions. Two of my neighbours panicked and sold at the height of the lowest point in 2020. The market in Durham (the new quasi-Toronto) has taken off! Definitely a seller's market with just 0.4 MOI (Whitby). A detached home that isn't inches away from its neighbour, with a long driveway, income potential, close to great schooling, the 401/407/ GO station, and in a courtyard seems now to be all the more valuable. I've heard though it is Durham residents and not necessarily TO people. Durham people are eager to move up to the 800K + homes. Knowing the area, loving the community, needing parking, a quieter area, & the best schools. Toronto people haven't quite realized the full charm of Whitby. (SHHHH). John- Happy Holiday wishes. Again, my thanks and hats off to you for providing these stats. Take care and stay safe. All the best in 2021.

Mike on Dec 22, 2020 10:54 AM posted:

Hi John, great website and great info! keep up the great work. Just had some questions: 1. From your experience are these locals moving up to bigger places or is it out of towners buying because its relatively cheaper? 2. Do precon houses make sense in this market? from what i have seen they have already priced up factoring in future price increases. Thanks & Happy Holidays.

John Owen, Broker RE/MAX Impact on Dec 22, 2020 11:04 AM posted:

Hi Mike, thanks for the positive feedback! Regarding your questions, 1. There are a lot of people in both situations buying in Durham. A lot of local move-up buyers are looking at rural properties that offer more space and privacy, while a lot of GTA buyers are looking at Durham for value as one of the most affordable areas within commute distance to the city. 2. Pre-construction can be a great option with inventory being so scarce (no bidding wars!), provided you work with an experienced agent that can help with determining comparative value between builders and locations, as well as helping negotiate a fair contract. Builder agreements are notoriously complex, and can be loaded with hidden costs and fees. Also, builder sales agents may not be licensed Realtors, who are held to strict standards of conduct.

Dilshat on Dec 22, 2020 9:20 PM posted:

Hi John, Thank for for the great information, it did enhance my confidence on my job, recently I did reallocate to the bank in durham region as mortgage specialist, do you have any suggestion how can i build up my network with realtors, broker and potential customers in area?

John Owen, Broker RE/MAX Impact on Dec 23, 2020 11:04 AM posted:

Hi Dilshat. Glad to hear that you are finding my information helpful. My advice for building your business network is to reach out via social networks, events, and by doing the best you can with each client. Best of luck in the new year!

Dhana on Jul 13, 2021 2:37 PM posted:

Hi, thanks for the amazing stats. I would like to have your suggestion on how the market will be 1 year from now in the AJAX. Do you think the price for the detached houses will stay the same or go up/down. Thank you.

Prat on Oct 27, 2021 8:52 AM posted:

I am thinking of buying a stack townhouse type property in oshawa and would like to hold it for atleast 2 years. Until end of 2023. Do you think the property price will stay the same of go up in next 2-3 years? Also, what's the average price of such a property with 1100sq ft? Thanks

John Owen, Broker RE/MAX Impact on Oct 27, 2021 10:25 AM posted:

Hi Prat, no one can say for certain what will happen looking forward, but market conditions for Durham Region, in terms of inventory and demand, are very strong, and a substantial increase in inventory would be required to meet that demand in the coming few years. Economic conditions could have a negative impact on the market, through higher interest rates and then there is government policy (remember 2017?). I will reach out to you regarding your specific property questions.

Jonathan on Nov 6, 2021 2:44 AM posted:

Hi John, love the way you break out all this information into easily understandable charts! My one question is this: I typically see a distinction made between townhouses and semi-detached houses. Is there a reason you don't make that distinction? Is the data/sale prices between the two similar enough to not worry about it? Thanks!

John Owen, Broker RE/MAX Impact on Nov 6, 2021 11:57 AM posted:

Hi Jonathan. Glad to hear that you find the reports useful! Regarding your question on semi-detached homes, there are a number of different property types that I don't summarize, simply because there isn't enough sales data or interest from my audience to justify breaking down all of them on a frequent basis. When I work with a client on a property that is in one of these categories, then I will research accordingly.

Josh Stam on Jan 26, 2022 10:41 PM posted:

Oshawa is currently still under priced compared to the rest of the GTA and people just started noticing. The city changed a lot for the better and it certainty deserves more attention.

Ray on Aug 15, 2022 10:05 AM posted:

Are you able to look at the previous months to predict what the last quarter of 2022 will look like on the market? Also, How long does it take for you to compile all of these stats daily? Great layout. So comprehensive! Thanks John.

John Owen, Broker RE/MAX Impact on Aug 15, 2022 11:07 AM posted:

Hi Ray, Thank you for the kind words! Although it is possible to predict the future of the market, I tend to focus on recent historical numbers and events to help my clients in their current situations. As we have seen with the recent downturn (and the one in 2017), major economic events tend to affect the market very rapidly. Recently, it was changes in federal government policy affecting interest rates. As for the time I spend putting all this together, it varies, but it does take a lot of my time!

Dave T on Dec 14, 2023 3:52 PM posted:

From your recent post "Once the buyer pool begins to regain confidence, via interest rate drops or on the inflationary front, expect a sharp uptick in buyer activity and competition - especially in Durham Region. This will have the effect of driving prices higher on the average and luxury segments of the market" Would you kindly explain why prices would be driven higher in the segment of the market you note above vs the market as a whole Regards, Dave T

John Owen, Broker RE/MAX Impact on Dec 14, 2023 4:26 PM posted:

Hi Dave, that's a great question! As mortgage rates moved substantially higher over the last two years, buyer budgets have been further and further constrained. At 1.8%, a $5,000 mortgage payment budget would fund a 1,200,000 mortgage. At 5.8%, that same payment budget would fund less than an $800,000 mortgage. That's a very large difference in a rather short time frame. If we look at inventory, there isn't a large amount of homes available in the Durham Region market. We are currently sitting around the 3 month mark, which is firmly in seller market territory. Homes are selling, but many of them are moving in the lower price ranges, even with multiple offers, as homes in the higher brackets are sitting on the market for longer, and rarely attract multiple offers. There are buyers interested in the higher end; they are either waiting for lower rates (so they can afford a higher price) or for prices to drop further (which has been happening, though at a very slow pace). Some of them can afford to move (perhaps moving cities or upsizing), and are concerned with the economy. I have a mix of buyers in each of these groups. If rates drop, more of the buyer pool will have a bigger budget, and they will start to look at and offer on higher priced homes. The problem is inventory, and has been for a long time. As more of those buyers start making offers, the prices are going to rise. If the other groups that can already afford to move and are just sitting also become active (they see that things are moving again and are more confident/don't want to miss out), the situation compounds. Even more buyers competing for a very limited pool of listings.

Dave T on Mar 20, 2024 8:59 AM posted:

John, When trying to determine the "fair" market value of any property in the "current" R/E environment sellers are often presented with a list of properties that have sold in their area over time Lately that time includes (2022) a time in which properties sold for 130% of list Would that outlier 130% price factor into the price at which an agent would advise a seller to list a property or would a suggested list price be in a tighter more recent range that would exclude the outlier of 2022 Best regards, Dave T

John Owen, Broker RE/MAX Impact on Mar 20, 2024 9:55 AM posted:

Hi Dave, when preparing a comparative market analysis (CMA), an agent will look for similar properties that have recently sold in close proximity to a subject property. When a narrow focus doesn't produce enough results, they would then expand on either distance or date sold to come up with enough results. When going back in time, an adjustment would be made based on the difference between current selling prices and those at the time (month) the sale was made. The focus here could be narrow (like all sales in a community) or a city (detached homes sold in Oshawa), depending on the volume of sales. An adjustment could be either up or down for each comparable, depending on selling date. They would also adjust up/down based on other factors that make the comparable properties different, like lot size, extra bedrooms, recent renovations or unfinished basements.

Dave T on Jun 17, 2024 9:53 AM posted:

In this fast moving R/E market is it possible to put an offer in on a home that is contingent on selling ones current home? It used to be the norm ....not sure now Best regards, Dave T

John Owen, Broker, RE/MAX Impact on Jun 17, 2024 10:27 AM posted:

That's a great question, Dave. It can be challenging to introduce a condition to sell your home in an offer to purchase when in a seller's market. The answer depends on several things. First, is either home going to be different concerning the market norm? For example, if the one you are buying is not in a competitive niche, then this could be fine. Homes in higher price brackets or in outlying areas tend not to attract multiple offers. Those sellers may be more willing to consider this, and other types of conditions. There are more things to consider - is the one you are planning to sell in a competitive niche, and prepared to list quickly if needed?

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