Durham Region Real Estate Daily Market Update
Last updated September 15, 2024, 11:00 a.m.
Durham Region Real Estate Market Report - August 2024
The real estate market in Durham Region now has the highest inventory levels since 2011 (May 2011 - 2429 active listings) with many potential buyers waiting for lower mortgage rates and positive economic news before they purchase.
The market is more balanced, as listing inventory has increased in several areas and price points as sales volume lags. The result is a scenario that gives buyers a short-term opportunity to enter the market with an advantage over sellers in some locations and price ranges.
Sellers should be realistic about expectations, especially in the middle and higher price ranges and condo apartments in all price ranges. Sale prices are far closer to list prices than just a few months ago, and price reductions are commonplace when listings do not sell within market norms.
New Listing - 72 Cortland Crescent, Quinte West
Sales volume aligns with seasonal expectations and is similar to the low levels experienced last year. At least some of that can be attributed to persistently high mortgage rates, combined with tough qualification rules, which eat into buyer budgets.
Listing inventory is very close to its highest levels on record, though still somewhat low in south Durham relative to sales volume.
Multiple offer situations are still common in lower and middle price ranges, as buyers scramble to compete for homes within their budgets. Read on for more details on how average selling prices are now close to parity with list prices.
The September 4 Bank of Canada announcement to cut the benchmark overnight rate to 4.25% helped further bolster consumer confidence. Economists and industry professionals anticipate that rates will drop even more as the year progresses. The next announcement is scheduled for October 23.
Recently, fixed mortgage rates have been dropping, tied to the 5-year Canada Bond Yield rate. If you are shopping for a home, or have a mortgage renewal coming up, keep a close eye on rate offerings, and check with your mortgage broker regularly, as they have been changing recently.
Supply ranges from low to moderate, with 4.1 months of inventory (MOI) for the entire region. This means that at the current pace of sales, with no new listings, all inventory would be sold within this time frame.
Durham Region Real Estate Market September 2024
In September, transactions reported thus far had sale prices averaging 887,970 in Durham Region, with the average property selling at 100.3% of list price (SP/LP). This is a drop of 2.2% from last month and a 2.0% decrease from last September.
Durham Region has the strongest market stats in the Greater Toronto Area for sale price to list price ratio (highest) and affordability (lowest average sale price).
Here is a look at average detached home selling prices daily over the past 2 months: Prices have been receding slightly over this period.
This month's average selling price of detached homes this month is just over 990,000, as reflected in the following map.
Looking at the top chart's selling price to list price ratios, a few communities in south Durham show sales at levels above list price. The following chart shows how market tightness slowed over most of 2022 and picked up in early 2023, before dropping this summer. It is now starting to edge higher.
Some listings at low to mid price points are posted with offer dates, where no offers will be considered until that date. This is intended to pressure buyers (given the shortage of listings) and generate multiple offers.
The selling price to list price ratio (SPLP) has averaged near the 100% mark, indicating that about half of homes sell above their list price. In those cases, more than one offer is being placed on properties, signalling that multiple offer scenarios are still in the mix - just not with the same frequency as before the recent downturn.
Note the blue bars in the chart, demonstrating SPLP averages below 100%, versus red bars, indicating averages above 100%. Those red bars are less dominant than earlier in the year, showing buyer competition on listings has come down (except at low price points).
Days on market (DOM) are averaging 24.9 this month. DOM is the number of days it takes for a property to be sold firm, or without any remaining conditions.
This figure typically rises in the winter season and is lowest during the spring peak.
Should new listings rise at a pace that is faster than current sales, then there would be more inventory for the pool of buyers to choose from, which will have the effect of reducing the sale price to list price ratio, then months of inventory stat, which leans the market closer to a balanced market.
Active listings dropped to seasonal low levels in January. They have climbed since then, creating more balance in the marketplace. Active listings are now very near a record high in Durham Region.
The high number of active listings makes competitive strategy more essential when selling a property. When listings were more scarce, (including now but at lower price points) prospective buyers were compelled to reduce expectations on location, property condition, etc. They also will be pressured in competitive situations to remove conditions on their offers.
The sales rate dropped by 17.3% compared to last month and is down 9.7% compared to last year, with 19.5 daily transactions.
The following chart shows the daily sales volume for the past 2 months. Sales volume is usually lower in the summer than in spring and autumn.
Buyers will find multiple offer situations in some locations, particularly at lower price points. They are highly advised to get prepared - have their mortgage preapproval ready before looking at homes, and be prepared to view homes via photos and virtual tours as soon as they reach the market. With interest rates dropping and mortgage qualification rules under review, knowing your options is more important than ever. Speak with your agent to discuss the process to move forward.
Sellers should plan to put their homes on the market soon and work with their agents to set them apart from competing listings while reaching the widest possible audience. This is particularly important at mid to high price points.
If you are interested in seeing values for an area not shown or are interested in other figures, please comment below or contact me. As always, reach out anytime to discuss this further without obligation.
More Durham Region and Area Real Estate Articles
Durham Region Property Tax Rates - GTA and Ontario
Durham Region Market Report - August 2024
Durham Region Property Tax Calculator
Market reports and information for surrounding areas can be found on my other blogs - see the menu for details.
About the Author
John Owen, Broker, RE/MAX Impact
John is an award-winning RE/MAX broker based in Courtice, ON.
Direct - 905-434-0067
Email - johnowen@remax.net
Member - RE/MAX Hall of Fame, Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
The figures shown are for the following property types unless otherwise specified: detached, semi-detached, condo townhouse, condo apartment, link, att/row/townhouse, co-op apartment, detached condo and co-ownership apartment.
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