Last update - Jan 31, 2020 - scroll to bottom for details
January full report coming on February 6 by noon!
Durham Region's real estate market closed 2019 with prices at their highest level of the year in December.
This is highly unusual, as prices normally follow a pattern of peaks in the spring season and lows in the winter months.
Sales volume patterns for the year showed a more conventional pattern of high volume in the spring and lower volume in the colder months.
One key factor that has and will continue to impact the local market is a substantial lack of supply. Active listings are substantially down - both annually and monthly.
Prices in Durham increased by 9.0% since December 2018 and rose 4.6% since November 2019. The Toronto Real Estate Board's (TREB) overall market posted an 11.7% annual increase (-0.7% monthly).
Average prices for all of TREB were 837,788 as shown in the above chart (red line). The price point is still close to the high for the year, though off the peak in October.
While prices grew at a faster pace in the GTA overall last month, they shrunk at a slower pace this month, reducing the gap between market areas.
The latest market statistics show the average Durham property at $640,269 - up from last month's 611,872 by $28,397 (+4.6%).
Active listings in Durham Region were 879 in December. That is a 31.8% decrease from last year and a 35.5% decrease from November. The drop in active listings represents a significant tightening of the market. Currently, there are only 2.0 months of inventory, increasing buyer competition and could help to drive prices higher at a moderate pace.
The overall TREB market had a 38.1% decrease in active listings from November.
Sales volume in Durham Region increased 16.1% from last year with 518 units sold versus 446 last December (TREB +16.3%). It was down from November by 40.6%. (TREB -38.0%). The monthly slowdown is expected this time of year, as December through February are typically the lowest volume months.
The time a property takes to sell is called DOM or days on market. It was 28 in December, showing a very strong pace to sales for this time of year. This figure tends to increase after the spring market before dropping again in the fall and rising again in winter months.
Another indicator of demand is sale price compared to list price. It was 99% in Durham in December, again showing high levels of buyer demand.
These factors combined are a good barometer for sellers, as it shows that not only is current inventory moving at a good pace, but it is also selling at a price that is very close to asking.
Prices By Home Style
What are homes selling for in Durham Region Cities?
Oshawa showed strong increases in prices from November (+7.6%) as well as annually (+5.3%). Sales volume was up from 2018 (+9.4% annual change) and down seasonally from November (-43.8%).
Detached homes had an 8.7% increase in average price annually, while condos were down 7.4%.
Whitby's sales volume dropped from November (-36.0%) and was up strongly from last year (+37.1%). Prices were up (+2.3%) from November and again very strong (+15.5%) annually.
Clarington's sales volume dropped (-46.0%) monthly, and was up (+17.4%) annually. Prices were up (+2.8%) monthly and annually (+7.1%).
In Ajax, volume was up (+17.6%) annually and down (-30.6%) monthly. Prices increased (+6.7%) annually in Ajax and monthly (+6.0%).
Pickering fell in volume monthly (-46.0%) and was up (+7.0%) year-over-year. It had increases in price (+2.7%) annually and (+1.5%) monthly.
Week 4 update
The first 4 weeks of January has now picked up in sales volume, with volume up compared to both last month and last year.
Note that sales data may be updated with late-posted sales and corrections. Condo represents condominium apartment.
Listings are moving quickly for this time of year, and at a very strong ratio to list price, particularly in Oshawa, Clarington, Pickering and Whitby.
Prices are now higher than December's levels, which averaged just over 640,000 for all property types in Durham Region.
Months of Inventory (MOI) is now at very low levels in Ajax (0.86), Oshawa (1.03), Whitby (1.33) and Pickering (1.49). These figures are based on active listings on January 30, and sales pace for the first 28 days of January. The figures reported monthly by TRREB may vary widely as they are calculated on trends over a longer period.
Anyone considering selling should be considering listing their home before the spring rush. Competition is very low in many areas right now, and buyers are very active in many price bands.
It's not all bad news for buyers, though. Be prepared! Get your pre-approval done, and be ready to act if you find a property that you like.
If you are interested in seeing values for an area not shown or are interested in other figures, please comment below or contact me. As always, give me a call anytime if you would like to discuss further without any obligation.
Broker, RE/MAX Impact Realty
Want to keep updated on Durham Real Estate?
Member, Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB).
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