Durham's real estate market activity tapered off in September, after an abnormally busy July and August. While still very busy compared to last year at this time, the easing of volume allowed for prices to also ease back in a number of local areas.
Given the pace of sales over the last couple of months, combined with a reduction in inventory across the GTA, conditions are ripe for a very busy fall season in Durham.
Further, there looks to be a consensus among the federal political parties to bring about changes to the mortgage rules that should also have a beneficial impact on our market. A loosening of the stress test combined with increased amortizations to 30 years should make a substantial difference to the budget capabilities of many buyers.
Consequently, I would expect to see a jump in activity in the 600,000 to 900,000 price ranges, as buyers expand their scope.
Prices in Durham rose by 4.2% since September 2018 and eased 0.5% since August 2019. The Toronto Real Estate Board's (TREB) overall market posted a 5.8% annual increase (+6.4% monthly). Pickering showed a 6.6% monthly increase, which may influence prices to the east in the coming months in a ripple effect.
Average prices for all of TREB were 843,115 as shown in the above chart (red line). The seasonal summer dip in price has been erased, and September brought a new high for the year.
Durham Region (blue line) prices showed a yearly increase, though with much less volatility than the TREB numbers showed in the seasonal trends. Durham showed very little reduction in price over the summer, and we are still close to highs for the year.
The latest market statistics show the average Durham property at $611,569 - down from last month's 614,362 by $2,793 (-0.5%).
Active listings in Durham Region were 1936 in September. That is a 10.8% decrease from last year and a 1% increase from August. The small bump in active listings doesn't help much with tempering the pace of sales. Currently, there are only 2.2 months of inventory, increasing buyer competition and will help to drive prices higher at a moderate pace.
The overall TREB market had an 8.7% increase in active listings from August.
Sales volume in Durham Region increased 35.3% from last year with 956 units sold versus 773 last September (TREB +3.4%). It was down from August by 8.6%. (TREB +17.3%).
The time a property takes to sell is called DOM or days on market. It was 23 in September, showing a strong pace to sales, especially for late summer. This figure tends to increase after the spring market before dropping again in the fall.
Another indicator of demand is sale price compared to list price. It was 99% in Durham in September, again showing high levels of buyer demand.
These factors combined are a good barometer for sellers, as it shows that not only is current inventory moving at a good pace, but it is also selling at a price that is very close to asking.
Prices By Home Style
What are homes selling for in Durham Region Cities?
Oshawa showed a reduction in sales volume from August, along with a slight dip in selling price. Sales volume was down from August (-16.6%) though well up from 2018 (+40.1% annual change). Prices were down from August (-1.2%) and up (+3.9%) year-over-year.
Whitby continued to show lower sales volume from August (-5.8%) but was up from last year (+28.4%). Prices were down (-5.0%) from August and up (+6.0%) annually.
Clarington's sales volume eased slightly (-1.5%) monthly, and was up sharply (+46.6%) annually. Prices were down (-2.6%) monthly and also annually (-2.4%).
In Ajax, volume was up (+19.4%) annually and down (-1.3%) monthly. Prices increased (+3.4%) annually in Ajax and also (+0.4%) monthly.
Pickering dropped in volume monthly (-16.2%) but also had a strong August. It was up substantially (+52.6%) year-over-year. It had jumps in price (+5.4%) annually and (+6.6%) monthly.
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