Northumberland Real Estate Market Update
Last updated January 16, 2025, at 10:35 a.m.
As we reach the middle of January 2025, Northumberland’s real estate market has buyer-friendly conditions across most of the region as inventory levels remain high relative to sales volume.
The abundance of available listings, particularly at higher prices, makes for a near-term opportunity for buyers.
The good news for sellers is that prices are stable in some locations, which shows buyers to the west (Durham Region and the GTA) are getting frustrated with their buying power and competition for listings.
The announcement of the new Wesleyville Nuclear Power Plant project near Port Hope is a huge boost for the Northumberland economy and for the future of property values in the area.
Mortgage rates have come down, making getting a mortgage pre-approval (and rate lock) essential for buyers who haven’t purchased yet. The Bank of Canada rate announcement on December 11 delivered another drop in the overnight rate, which has directly impacted variable mortgage rates. The next announcement is Jan 29.
Inventory levels in Northumberland range from lower levels in Port Hope and Cramahe, to high relative to the pace of sales, as shown in the following map:
Northumberland Real Estate Market January 2025
Supply levels vary throughout the region, with 7.2 months of inventory (MOI) for the entire area. This means that at the current pace of sales, with no new listings, all inventory would be sold within this time frame.
In January, residential transactions reported thus far had selling prices averaging 609,765 in Northumberland, with the average property selling at 98.3% of list price (SP/LP). This is a 12.6% decrease from last month and a 13.5% decrease from last January.
Stronger performance in western Northumberland areas shows that market strength in Durham Region is spilling over into the western parts of Northumberland that are close to Highway 401. Those areas benefit by being within commuting distance for some eastern GTA employers.
Here is a look at average home selling prices each month over the last three years. Prices have dropped off since the fall.
The following chart shows average daily selling prices for detached homes across Northumberland in the past 60 days.
This month's average selling price of detached homes is just under 620,000 as shown in the map below.
The selling price to list price ratios in most Northumberland communities show figures close to 98%, as shown in the table at the top of the page. This is still close to the 100% mark, showing that buyers are active, and multiple offer situations are happening in some situations.
Some listings at lower price points are posted with offers held to a specific date. This strategy is intended to pressure buyers (when there is a perceived shortage of listings) and to generate multiple offers. Watch for these in Port Hope and Cobourg areas.
The sale price to list price ratio has averaged near the 98% mark, showing that most properties are selling without multiple offers. Note in the above chart where the red bars appear. For those days, the selling prices were above 100%, signalling that bidding situations made selling prices higher than list prices, on average.
Most local communities are now averaging below the 100% point, indicating less buyer competition.
The SP/LP ratio has been rising, which correlates to the increased amount of buyer activity, especially from the GTA region.
Days on market (DOM) averaged 70.3. DOM is the number of days it takes for a property to be sold firm or without any outstanding conditions.
This figure has been rising recently, correlating to the high inventory levels.
Should new listings rise at a pace that is faster than current sales, then there would be more inventory for the pool of buyers to choose from, which will have the effect of reducing the sale price to list price ratio, then months of inventory stat, which leans the market closer to a balanced market.
Active listings have come down from a high point reached in September. There is still lots of inventory to choose from for buyers in many locations, which helps to explain the lower buyer competition on the majority of listings.
More active listings make it important for sellers to have a strong plan to stand out from competing listings. When listings were more scarce, (including now but at lower price points) buyers were compelled to reduce expectations on location, property condition, etc. They also may have pressure in competitive situations to remove conditions on their offers.
The sales rate for January has decreased by 28.9% compared to last month and is down 28.9% compared to this time last year, with a pace of 1.9 units sold daily.
The following chart shows the daily sales volume for the past sixty days.
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Buyers will still find multiple offer situations in some locations and price ranges, particularly at lower price points. They are highly advised to get prepared - have their mortgage preapproval ready before looking at homes, and be prepared to view homes via photos and virtual tours as soon as they reach the market. With interest rates being volatile, and mortgage qualification rules under review, locking in a rate is more important than ever. Speak with your agent to discuss the process to move forward.
Potential sellers should be working with their agent to identify ways to set their property apart from competitive listings while reaching the widest possible audience.
If you are interested in seeing values for an area not shown or are interested in other figures, please comment below or contact me. As always, call me anytime if you would like to discuss this further without any obligation.
More Northumberland and Area Real Estate Articles
Peterborough Region Real Estate Market Report
Northumberland Property Tax Rates - GTA and Ontario
Northumberland Real Estate Market Report - November 2024
About the Author
John Owen, Broker, RE/MAX Impact
John is an award-winning broker with RE/MAX Impact Realty and is a member of the RE/MAX Hall of Fame.
Direct - 905-434-0067
Email - johnowen@remax.net
Member, Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
The recent amalgamation of the former Quinte & District Association of Realtors (QDAR) and Northumberland Hills Association of Realtors (NHAR) with the Durham Region Association of Realtors (DRAR) has resulted in a new, larger board representing all of these regions called the Central Lakes Association of Realtors (CLAR).
The Multiple Listing Service (MLS) for all of these regions is now hosted by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) and makes the availability and sharing of MLS data across all of these areas much easier, to the benefit of buyers and sellers, and the real estate community.
Figures shown are for the following property types unless otherwise specified: detached, semi-detached, condo townhouse, condo apartment, link, att/row/townhouse, co-op apartment, detached condo and co-ownership apartment.
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