Northumberland Real Estate Market Update
Last updated Feb 7, 2024, at 11:20 a.m.
Read the latest market report
The real estate market in Northumberland has completed January 2024 with balanced conditions at most price points and locations.
Inventory levels and sales volume are recovering after slowing considerably from August. The winter months are typically slower than the other seasons, but an improved outlook on interest rates and inflation is bringing buyers back out earlier than usual this year.
Mortgage rates are still very high compared to just a couple of years ago, making getting a mortgage pre-approval (and rate lock) essential for buyers who haven’t purchased yet.
Northumberland Real Estate Market January 2024
Supply levels vary throughout the region, with 4.2 months of inventory (MOI) for the entire area. This means that at the current pace of sales, with no new listings, all inventory would be sold within this time frame. There are higher levels in some communities (Trent Hills).
In January, residential transactions reported had selling prices averaging 725,970 in Northumberland, with the average property selling at 97.3% of list price (SP/LP). This is a 6.9% increase from last month and is up 5.9% from last year.
Here is a look at average home selling prices each month over the past few years. The trend shows prices climbing at a healthy pace over the first several months of this year, then falling through September before climbing in October, then surging in November before dropping in December. There has been substantially more activity in higher priced homes recently, after being very quiet for several months prior to November.
The following chart shows average daily selling prices for detached homes across Northumberland in the past 90 days.
The average selling price of detached homes for January was just under 750,000.
The selling price to list price ratios in most Northumberland communities show figures close to 97%, as shown in the table at the top of the page.
Some recent listings at lower price points are posted with offer dates, where no offers will be considered until that date (mostly in western communities and low price points). This is intended to pressure buyers (given the relative shortage of listings) and generate multiple offers.
Also, the sale price to list price ratio has averaged just below the 100% mark. This shows that most properties are selling without multiple offers. Note in the above chart where the red bars appear. For those days, the selling prices were above 100% - signalling that bidding situations made selling prices higher than list prices on average.
Days on market (DOM) averaged 49.6. DOM is the number of days it takes for a property to be sold firm, or without any outstanding conditions. This figure has been dropping recently, another indication that the market is tightening.
This figure had dropped substantially since the beginning of spring and had been heading higher over the summer. It rose again leading into the fall.
Should new listings rise at a pace that is faster than current sales, then there would be more inventory for the pool of buyers to choose from, which will have the effect of reducing the sale price to list price ratio, then months of inventory stat, which leans the market closer to a balanced market.
Active listings dropped in the winter months last year. They climbed steadily until July, putting pressure on selling prices. They dropped somewhat in August before climbing again and have headed lower into December before climbing again.
More active listings make all the steps taken to compete among selling properties more critical. When listings were more scarce, (including now but at lower price points) buyers were compelled to reduce expectations on location, property condition, etc. They also may have pressure in competitive situations to remove conditions on their offers.
The sales rate for January jumped by 70.6% compared to last month and is up 50.0% compared to this time last year, with a current pace of 2.8 units sold daily.
The following chart shows the daily sales volume for the past 3 months.
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Buyers will still find multiple offer situations in some locations and price ranges, particularly at lower price points. They are highly advised to get prepared - have their mortgage preapproval ready before looking at homes, and be prepared to view homes via photos and virtual tours as soon as they reach the market. With interest rates being volatile, and mortgage qualification rules under review, locking in a rate is more important than ever. Speak with your agent to discuss the process to move forward.
Potential sellers should be working with their agent to identify ways to set their home apart from competitive listings while reaching the widest possible audience.
If you are interested in seeing values for an area not shown or are interested in other figures, please comment below or contact me. As always, give me a call anytime if you would like to discuss this further without any obligation.
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About the Author
John Owen, Broker, RE/MAX Impact
John is an award-winning broker with RE/MAX Impact Realty and was their number-one agent in GCI for 2022.
Direct - 905-434-0067
Email - johnowen@remax.net
Member, Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
The recent amalgamation of the former Quinte & District Association of Realtors (QDAR) and Northumberland Hills Association of Realtors (NHAR) with the Durham Region Association of Realtors (DRAR) has resulted in a new, larger board representing all of these regions called the Central Lakes Association of Realtors (CLAR).
The Multiple Listing Service (MLS) for all of these regions is now hosted by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) and will make the availability and sharing of MLS data across all of these areas much easier, to the benefit of buyers and sellers, and the real estate community.
Figures shown are for the following property types: detached, semi-detached, condo townhouse, condo apartment, link, att/row/townhouse, co-op apartment, detached condo and co-ownership apartment.
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