Northumberland Real Estate Market Update
Last updated November 4, 2024, at 12:30 p.m.
We have wrapped up October, and Northumberland’s real estate market has buyer-friendly conditions across most of the region as inventory levels have risen to near the highest levels on record.
The abundance of available listings, particularly at higher prices, makes for a near-term opportunity for buyers.
The good news for sellers is that prices are stable in some locations, which shows buyers to the west (Durham Region and the GTA) are getting frustrated with their buying power and competition for listings.
Mortgage rates are still high compared to just a couple of years ago, though they are down some, making getting a mortgage pre-approval (and rate lock) essential for buyers who haven’t purchased yet. The Bank of Canada rate announcement scheduled for October 23rd is widely expected to contain a half-point drop in the overnight rate, which will directly impact variable mortgage rates.
Inventory levels in Northumberland range from lower levels in Port Hope and Cramahe, to high relative to the pace of sales, as shown in the following map:
Northumberland Real Estate Market October 2024
Supply levels vary throughout the region, with 5.3 months of inventory (MOI) for the entire area. This means that at the current pace of sales, with no new listings, all inventory would be sold within this time frame.
In October, residential transactions reported had selling prices averaging 690,032 in Northumberland, with the average property selling at 97.4% of list price (SP/LP). This is a 1.7% increase from last month and a 5.3% drop from last October.
Stronger performance in western Northumberland areas shows that market strength in Durham Region is spilling over into the western parts of Northumberland that are close to Highway 401. Those areas benefit by being within commuting distance for some eastern GTA employers.
Here is a look at average home selling prices each month over the last three years. Prices have declined after building through most of the first half of this year.
The following chart shows average daily selling prices for detached homes across Northumberland in the past 60 days.
This month's average selling price of detached homes is just under 700,000 as shown in the map below.
The selling price to list price ratios in most Northumberland communities show figures close to 97%, as shown in the table at the top of the page. This is still close to the 100% mark, showing that buyers are active, and multiple offer situations are happening in some situations.
Some listings at lower price points are posted with offers held to a specific date. This strategy is intended to pressure buyers (when there is a perceived shortage of listings) and to generate multiple offers. Watch for these in Port Hope and Cobourg areas.
The sale price to list price ratio has averaged near the 97% mark. This shows that most properties are selling without multiple offers. Note in the above chart where the red bars appear. For those days, the selling prices were above 100% - signalling that bidding situations made selling prices higher than list prices, on average.
All local communities are now averaging below the 100% point, indicating less buyer competition.
The SP/LP ratio has been dropping, which correlates to the increased months of inventory levels.
Days on market (DOM) averaged 38.8. DOM is the number of days it takes for a property to be sold firm, or without any outstanding conditions.
This figure has been dropping recently, correlating to the reduction in inventory levels.
Should new listings rise at a pace that is faster than current sales, then there would be more inventory for the pool of buyers to choose from, which will have the effect of reducing the sale price to list price ratio, then months of inventory stat, which leans the market closer to a balanced market.
Active listings are at a historical high point, rising steadily since winter. There is more choice for buyers, which helps to explain the lower amount of competition on listings (with a dropping sale price to list price ratio).
More active listings make all the steps taken to compete among selling properties more critical. When listings were more scarce, (including now but at lower price points) buyers were compelled to reduce expectations on location, property condition, etc. They also may have pressure in competitive situations to remove conditions on their offers.
The sales rate for October has increased by 7.3% compared to last month and is up 19.4% compared to this time last year, with a pace of 3.8 units sold daily.
The following chart shows the daily sales volume for the past sixty days.
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Buyers will still find multiple offer situations in some locations and price ranges, particularly at lower price points. They are highly advised to get prepared - have their mortgage preapproval ready before looking at homes, and be prepared to view homes via photos and virtual tours as soon as they reach the market. With interest rates being volatile, and mortgage qualification rules under review, locking in a rate is more important than ever. Speak with your agent to discuss the process to move forward.
Potential sellers should be working with their agent to identify ways to set their property apart from competitive listings while reaching the widest possible audience.
If you are interested in seeing values for an area not shown or are interested in other figures, please comment below or contact me. As always, call me anytime if you would like to discuss this further without any obligation.
More Northumberland and Area Real Estate Articles
Peterborough Region Real Estate Market Report
Northumberland Property Tax Rates - GTA and Ontario
Northumberland Real Estate Market Report - September 2024
About the Author
John Owen, Broker, RE/MAX Impact
John is an award-winning broker with RE/MAX Impact Realty and is a member of the RE/MAX Hall of Fame.
Direct - 905-434-0067
Email - johnowen@remax.net
Member, Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
The recent amalgamation of the former Quinte & District Association of Realtors (QDAR) and Northumberland Hills Association of Realtors (NHAR) with the Durham Region Association of Realtors (DRAR) has resulted in a new, larger board representing all of these regions called the Central Lakes Association of Realtors (CLAR).
The Multiple Listing Service (MLS) for all of these regions is now hosted by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) and makes the availability and sharing of MLS data across all of these areas much easier, to the benefit of buyers and sellers, and the real estate community.
Figures shown are for the following property types unless otherwise specified: detached, semi-detached, condo townhouse, condo apartment, link, att/row/townhouse, co-op apartment, detached condo and co-ownership apartment.
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