Durham Region Real Estate Monthly Market Update
Last updated January 7, 2025, 10:15 a.m.
Durham Region Real Estate Market Report - monthly
As we wrap up 2024, the Durham Region real estate market is witnessing significant shifts that promise a vibrant spring market. Here's what you should know about the current trends and what to expect:
Spring Market 2025 Projections:
The spring real estate market in Durham Region for 2025 is anticipated to be robust, with early signs indicating an accelerated start.
Mortgage Rates and Market Dynamics:
Lower Mortgage Rates: Mortgage rates have seen a substantial drop, energizing buyer activity.
Inventory Levels: Inventory has significantly decreased from recent highs, leading to a seller's market where properties are moving fast due to lower supply relative to demand.
Seller's Strategy for 2025:
Realistic Pricing: Sellers in higher price brackets, northern communities, and condo markets should set realistic expectations. With longer market times and fewer multiple offers, strategic pricing and marketing are crucial.
Market Presentation: A well-executed plan with appropriate pricing is essential for capturing buyer interest in these segments.
Sales and Inventory Trends:
Sales Volume: Sales figures have surpassed last year's lows, though they are down from recent peaks, aligning with seasonal expectations as winter approaches.
Inventory Drop: Listing inventory has sharply declined by 48% since its peak in September 2024, the highest since 2010, creating a competitive buyer environment.
Current Market Conditions:
Multiple Offers: In lower to mid-price ranges, competition has intensified, with multiple offers becoming the norm as buyers aim to secure homes within their budget.
Price Alignment: Selling prices are now closely matching list prices, reflecting the market's competitive nature.
Interest Rate Movements:
Bank of Canada's Impact: The recent cut in the benchmark overnight rate to 3.25% by the Bank of Canada on December 11 has boosted consumer confidence, with expectations of further, albeit smaller, rate reductions in the near future. The next rate announcement is due on January 29.
Mortgage Considerations:
Rate Volatility: With recent fluctuations in mortgage rates, potential buyers and those with upcoming renewals should monitor market rates closely and consult regularly with mortgage brokers.
Insurance Changes: The maximum home purchase price for insured mortgages has been raised to $1.5 million from $1 million, allowing buyers with limited down payment funds to target higher-priced homes.
By understanding these trends and preparing accordingly, buyers and sellers in the Durham Region can make informed decisions to navigate the promising real estate market in 2025. Keep an eye on these developments to optimize your strategy in this dynamic market environment.
Supply ranges from low to moderate, with 2.8 months of inventory (MOI) for the entire region. This means that at the current pace of sales, with no new listings, all inventory would be sold within this time frame.
Durham Region Real Estate Market December 2024
In December, transactions for all types of homes reported thus far had sale prices averaging 913,209 in Durham Region, with the average property selling at 99.5% of list price (SP/LP). This is up 1.0% from last month and 6.1% from last December.
Durham Region currently leads the Greater Toronto Area based on buyer competitiveness (highest sale price to list price ratio) and affordability (lowest average sale price).
Here is a look at average detached home selling prices daily over the past two months: Prices have been stable recently.
The following map reflects this month's average selling price of detached homes, just above 1,020,000.
Looking at the top chart's selling price to list price ratios, a few communities in south Durham show sales at levels above list price. The following chart shows how market tightness rose over early 2024, before easing since.
Some listings at low to mid-price points are posted with offer dates, and no offers will be considered until that date. This is intended to pressure buyers (given the shortage of listings) and generate multiple offers.
The selling price to list price ratio (SPLP) has averaged near the 100% mark, indicating that about half of homes sell above their list price. In those cases, more than one offer is being placed on properties, signalling that multiple offer scenarios are still in the mix - just not with the same frequency as before the recent downturn.
Note the blue bars in the chart, demonstrating SPLP averages below 100%, versus red bars, indicating averages above 100%. Those red bars are becoming more dominant, showing buyer competition on listings has been strong (mostly in lower and middle price points).
Days on market (DOM) are averaging 30.5 this month. DOM is the number of days it takes for a property to be sold firm, or without any remaining conditions.
This figure typically rises in the winter season and is lowest during the spring peak.
Should new listings rise faster than current sales, there would be more inventory for the pool of buyers to choose from, which lowers the sale price to list price ratio and months of inventory, which brings us closer to a balanced market.
Active listings climbed to a 13-year high in Durham Region in late September, and have come down considerably since then, as buyers react to lower interest rates and positive economic news.
The high number of active listings in some segments makes competitive strategy more essential when selling a property. When listings are more scarce (lower price points), prospective buyers must reduce expectations on location, property condition, etc. They also will be pressured in competitive situations to remove conditions on their offers.
The sales rate is down 34.9% compared to last month and is up 1.9% compared to last December, with 15.3 daily transactions.
The following chart shows the daily sales volume for the past 2 months.
Buyers will find multiple offer situations in some locations, particularly at lower price points. They are highly advised to get prepared - have their mortgage preapproval ready before looking at homes, and be prepared to view homes via photos and virtual tours as soon as they reach the market. With interest rates dropping and mortgage rules changing, knowing your options is more important than ever. Speak with your agent to discuss the process to move forward.
Sellers should plan to put their homes on the market soon and work with their agents to set them apart from competing listings while reaching the widest possible audience. This is particularly important at mid to high price points.
If you are interested in seeing values for an area not shown or are interested in other figures, please comment below or contact me. As always, reach out anytime to discuss this further without obligation.
More Durham Region and Area Real Estate Articles
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Durham Region Market Report - November 2024
Durham Region Property Tax Calculator
My other blogs contain market reports and information for surrounding areas—see the menu for details.
About the Author
John Owen, Broker, RE/MAX Impact
John is an award-winning RE/MAX broker based in Courtice, ON and serving a wide area from east GTA to Northumberland.
Direct - 905-434-0067
Email - johnowen@remax.net
Member - RE/MAX Hall of Fame, Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
The figures shown are for the following property types unless otherwise specified: detached, semi-detached, condo townhouse, condo apartment, link, att/row/townhouse, co-op apartment, detached condo and co-ownership apartment.
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