Durham Region Real Estate Monthly Market Update
Last updated October 3, 2024, 9:50 a.m.
The real estate market in Durham Region has wrapped up September with lower sales volume and prices amid near-record high inventory levels with increasing activity from a buyer pool that has been waiting out better conditions on the interest rate and economic fronts.
The market is more balanced, as listing inventory has climbed in several areas and price points as sales volume lags. Inventory reached a record high in Durham Region not seen since 2011 in mid-September, before easing off at the end of the month. The result is a market that gives buyers the upper hand before other buyers bring down inventory levels.
Sellers should be realistic about expectations, especially in the middle and higher price ranges and condo apartments in all price ranges. Sale prices are far closer to list prices than just a few months ago, and price reductions are commonplace when listings do not sell within market norms.
Sales volume aligns with seasonal expectations and is similar to the low levels experienced last year. At least some of that can be attributed to persistently high mortgage rates, combined with tough qualification rules, which eat into buyer budgets.
Listing inventory is climbing, though still somewhat low in south Durham relative to sales volume.
Multiple offer situations are still common in lower and middle price ranges, as buyers scramble to compete for homes within their budgets. Read on for more details on how average selling prices are now close to parity with list prices.
Recent Bank of Canada announcements to bring the overnight rate to 4.25% helped further bolster consumer confidence. Economists and industry professionals are confident that rates will drop further as the year progresses. The next announcement is scheduled for October 23.
The chart below shows sale prices for all home types over the past year across Durham Region and areas to the north and east. Those on a budget may want to consider the outlying regions for their home search.
Supply ranges from low to moderate, with 3.6 months of inventory (MOI) (trend figure from TRREB is 2.2) for the entire region, and higher levels in north Durham. This means that at the current pace of sales, with no new listings, all inventory would be sold within this time frame.
Durham Region Real Estate Market September 2024
In September, transactions reported had sale prices averaging 894,499 in Durham Region, with the average property selling at 100.2% of list price (SP/LP). This is a drop of 1.5% from last month and a 3.9% decrease from last September.
Durham Region had the strongest market stats in the Greater Toronto Area regarding months of inventory (lowest) and affordability (lowest average sale price).
Here is a look at average detached home selling prices daily over the past 2 months: Prices have been stable over this period, though dropping slightly.
The average selling price of detached homes is just under 990,000, as reflected in the following map.
The following chart shows how market tightness slowed over most of 2022 and picked up in early 2023 and 2024, before dropping recently.
Some listings at low to mid price points are posted with offer dates, where no offers will be considered until that date. This is intended to pressure buyers (given the shortage of listings) and generate multiple offers.
Also, SPLP (selling price to list price ratio) has averaged near the 100% mark, indicating that some homes sell above their list price. In those cases, more than one offer is being placed on properties, signalling that multiple offer scenarios are still in the mix - just not with the same frequency as before the recent downturn.
Note the increase in blue bars in the chart, demonstrating SPLP averages below 100%, versus red bars, indicating averages above 100%. Those red bars are becoming less dominant, showing buyer competition on listings is dropping off.
Days on market (DOM) averaged 22 days this month. DOM is the number of days it takes for a property to be sold firm, or without any remaining conditions.
This figure typically rises in the winter season and is lowest during the spring peak. It is now starting to creep back up.
Should new listings rise at a pace that is faster than current sales, then there would be more inventory for the pool of buyers to choose from, which will have the effect of reducing the sale price to list price ratio, then months of inventory stat, which leans the market closer to a balanced market.
Active listings dropped to seasonal low levels in January. They have climbed since then, though sales have been strong enough to keep inventory levels somewhat low compared to the rate of sales. Active listings are now near a high point since 2011.
The number of active listings also makes competitive strategy more essential when selling a property. When listings were more scarce, (including now but at lower price points) prospective buyers were compelled to reduce expectations on location, property condition, etc. They also will be pressured in competitive situations to remove conditions on their offers.
The sales rate decreased by 5.2% compared to last month and is down 13.4% compared to last year, with 672 transactions recorded.
The following chart shows the daily sales volume for the past 2 months. Sales volume is usually lower in the summer than in spring and autumn.
Buyers will find multiple offer situations in some locations, particularly at lower price points. They are highly advised to get prepared - have their mortgage preapproval ready before looking at homes, and be prepared to view homes via photos and virtual tours as soon as they reach the market. With interest rates dropping and mortgage qualification rules under review, knowing your options is more important than ever. Speak with your agent to discuss the process to move forward.
Sellers should plan to put their homes on the market soon and work with their agents to set their homes apart from competing listings while reaching the widest possible audience. This is particularly important at mid to high price points.
If you are interested in seeing values for an area not shown or are interested in other figures, please comment below or contact me. As always, reach out anytime if you wish to discuss this further without any obligation.
More Durham Region and Area Real Estate Articles
Durham Region Property Tax Rates - GTA and Ontario
Durham Region Market Report - August 2024
Durham Region Property Tax Calculator
Market reports and information for surrounding areas can be found on my other blogs - see the menu for details.
About the Author
John Owen, Broker, RE/MAX Impact
John is an award-winning broker with RE/MAX Impact Realty in Courtice, ON.
Direct - 905-434-0067
Email - johnowen@remax.net
Member, RE/MAX Hall of Fame, Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
The figures shown are for the following property types unless otherwise specified: detached, semi-detached, condo townhouse, condo apartment, link, att/row/townhouse, co-op apartment, detached condo and co-ownership apartment.
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