Last update August 24, 2024
I get asked about the value of real estate in areas to the north and east of Durham Region regularly. Yes, the Durham market has been very strong in recent years, but how do adjacent districts compare, and which areas will do well heading into the future?
This article will examine the performance of MLS residential home sales in Durham Region, Kawartha Lakes (Lindsay), Peterborough and Northumberland (Cobourg, Port Hope, Brighton areas).
Statistics are from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) and Central Lakes Association of Realtors (CLAR) MLS systems.
Here is a chart showing average sale prices for all home types in each of these regions:
Next is a chart showing average detached home sale prices.
Here’s a look at how competitive buyers are in each region. This chart shows sales price to list price ratio (SP/LP) for each location:
The graphic shows that buyer competition is higher in Durham by about 3-5% above the other areas. Recent activity shows balance in Peterborough, Northumberland and Kawartha Lakes with sales prices ranging 3-5% below the 100% point. The rate in Durham Region is closer to 101%.
When this figure is above 100%, the average listing is selling for more than the price listed. This indicates that there is competition among buyers and that more than one offer has been received on most listings. The higher that the rate is above the 100% point, the more competition there is among buyers. This also makes it difficult for buyers to include conditions on their offers.
When SP/LP is below 100%, there is less competition and more opportunity for buyers to negotiate on price and to add conditions to their offers. The further the rate is below the 100% point, the more favourable the situation is for buyers.
Durham Region
The average detached residential home price in Durham was 1,029,000 in July 2024.
That makes Durham the most expensive area of the group, by far, but it is also the least expensive area of the Greater Toronto Area.
SP/LP was 100.7% in July of 2024.
Kawartha Lakes
The average detached home price here was $830,000 in July of 2024.
SP/LP was 95.0% in June 2024.
Kawartha Lakes provides a good mix of rural and small communities with lots of lakefront options and recreational offerings.
Peterborough
In this district, the average detached price in July 2024 was $726,000.
SP/LP was 97.7% in July of 2024.
Peterborough is the most affordable of the group and may be a good option for value-conscious buyers looking to commute to Durham Region or the fringe areas of the GTA. The city of Peterborough offers a wide variety of amenities and the outlying areas offer plenty of waterfront and smaller community living options.
Northumberland
Northumberland's average detached sale price in July 2024 was $769,000.
SP/LP was 97.4% in July 2024.
Northumberland provides excellent value compared to areas to the west, and its proximity to Highway 401 and amenities make it a good candidate for buyers seeking value.
Population growth in Toronto and surrounding areas makes Northumberland an attractive choice for buyers seeking a quieter lifestyle.
Comparing the Numbers
Looking at the charts, we can see that all areas showed increases, but the intensity of change is what sets things apart. During the big run-up in early 2022, where all of these markets last peaked, the Durham Region reached 1,380,935, while the others reached figures just below 1,000,000.
Why the big difference in prices for Durham Region?
What makes Durham Region's results so much different? There are a number of major factors that contribute to the market demand here versus the outlying areas:
Proximity to Toronto - Durham Region is largely within commuting distance to the city. There are more people living in this area and working in the city than can manage the commute from further out.
Local Jobs - Many of the manufacturing plants that used to be in outlying areas have either shut down or downsized. This has had an impact in Durham as well, most notably in the automotive sector, but the other factors have helped to mitigate this impact here.
Housing prices in Toronto, York and Peel regions - With an average detached home selling for much higher prices, Durham is still the most affordable region in the GTA, with an average detached home price of about $1,000,000. (August 2024 TRREB MLS stats)
Immigration to the GTA - Hundreds of thousands of new immigrants come into the GTA each year. Most of these people are skilled and educated and are seeking housing. While many may start with a rental or purchase a condo apartment, these people are a driving force in the residential market. Take another look at the housing prices, and this additional demand makes Durham a high-demand alternative to the higher prices in the west and north GTA. According to Ontario's Ministry of Finance projections, the GTA will be the fastest-growing region in the province, accounting for over 68% of the province's population growth (from 6.6 million in 2015 to 9.5 million in 2041).
Population growth in Durham Region - According to Durham Region's planning department, the population in the region is currently around 696,000 (2021 Census). It is expected to grow to 1,000,000 by 2041, with the largest increases happening in the municipalities in the south of the region, bordering on Lake Ontario.
What about the future?
While no one can predict the future with absolute certainty, some things will help define the performance of the markets in Durham and outlying areas in the coming years.
Infrastructure improvements
- Expansion of GO train service east of Oshawa to Courtice and Bowmanville (2026-7)
- Expansion of Highway 401 through Whitby and Oshawa
These projects will help increase commuting and traffic capacity in Durham Region and outlying areas.
Pickering and Darlington nuclear plant refurbishments and expansion
These projects will help increase demand for housing with thousands of jobs annually until the end of the decade.
Economy
This element is going to affect housing universally. Improvements are widely anticipated for both employment and the overall economy heading into the latter part of 2024 and over the coming years.
Interest rates
The Bank of Canada and major bank economists have all indicated that rates should head substantially lower through 2025.
Policy changes
More changes like we have seen in the past relating to minimum down payments may influence local demand. Interestingly, it may actually spur demand in areas with lower average prices, as people looking to buy may be forced to look in areas where they can buy with the updated rules.
As you can see, there are many compelling reasons to show that the real estate market will continue to show strength in Durham Region and beyond. The strength of Durham's market usually also has a spillover effect into the surrounding areas, as price differences drive demand in areas to the near north and east of Durham.
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