Canadian Real Estate Association looks to gains for 2013, 2014

housesupThe Canadian Real Estate Association has released its quarterly forecast for national residential real estate sales, and the projections have improved from last quarter.  The numbers have been revised upwards, largely due to a very strong August.  The new figures show price gains in Ontario for both 2013 and 2014, with 2013 sales volume slightly lower than 2012, but rising in 2014. Given that mortgage lending rules have been tightened, along with a trend toward higher interest rates, this is somewhat surprising.  It shows that people are still buying despite these factors, and that demand is continuing to fuel price appreciation going forward.  It is important to note that the projections are based on provincial and national trends, and that some areas will undoubtedly show declines given the small percentages of increase that are projected overall.  On the other hand, some areas will show larger increases as other factors come into play. In Durham Region, price gains have handily outpaced other parts of the GTA as demand has been very strong.  I have written about this in my other articles, but some of the primary factors have been a large disparity in prices between Durham and areas to the west.  As demand for homes continues to rise, more people are looking beyond the Toronto core to find affordable homes.  Prices are much higher in the west end, and people are choosing to buy in the Oshawa and Whitby areas more and more.  A rising population, largely due to a high number of immigrants to the GTA, makes demand for housing even stronger.  New home construction in Toronto is almost exclusively condos, and those that want other home types must either pay a large premium or look beyond the city's borders.  Add to that the City of Toronto Land Transfer Tax, and the motivation is even stronger.