Northumberland Real Estate Market Update
Last update Sep 27, 2023, at 11:00 a.m.
The real estate market in Northumberland is approaching the end of September with balanced conditions at most price points and locations. Inventory is near a high point for the past year.
Inventory levels have risen over the last several months, and sales volume is starting to rebound after slowing over the summer. Buyers should be becoming more active heading into the cooler weather.
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Mortgage rates are back on the rise recently, making getting a mortgage pre-approval (and rate lock) essential for buyers who haven’t purchased yet.
Supply is low to moderate, with 4.6 months of inventory (MOI) for the entire region, with higher levels in some communities (Brighton, Alnwick/Haldimand). (This means that at the current pace of sales, with no new listings, all inventory would be sold within this time frame).
In September, transactions reported thus far had selling prices averaging 696,869 in Northumberland, with the average property selling at 98.0% of list price (SP/LP). This is a 5.2% decrease from last month and is down 2.1% from last year.
Here is a look at average detached home selling prices each day over the past 3 months: The trend showed prices climbing at a healthy pace over the first several months of the year, was lower through most of July and August, and stable in September.
The average selling price of detached homes this month is just over 725,000.
The selling price to list price ratios in most Northumberland communities show figures close to 100%, as shown in the table at the top of the page.
The drop in average sales price does not correlate with the high average sale price to list price ratio. This shows how much interest rate hikes have cut into buyer budgets. They are still active, just not buying higher priced homes to the same degree. This makes for a good situation for those interested in buying at the higher end of the market.
As of late, some listings at low to middle price points are posted with offer dates, where no offers will be considered until that date. This is intended to pressure buyers (given the relative shortage of listings) and generate multiple offers.
Also, SPLP has averaged just below the 100% mark, indicating that most homes are selling below their list price. This shows that most properties are selling without multiple offers. Note in the above chart where the red bars appear. For those days, the selling prices were above 100% - signalling that bidding situations made selling prices higher than list prices on average.
Days on market (DOM) averaged 33.6 days. DOM is the number of days it takes for a property to be sold firm, or without any outstanding conditions.
This figure had dropped substantially since the beginning of spring and has been heading higher over the summer.
Should new listings rise at a pace that is faster than current sales, then there would be more inventory for the pool of buyers to choose from, which will have the effect of reducing the sale price to list price ratio, then months of inventory stat, which leans the market closer to a balanced market.
Active listings had dropped in the winter months. They had climbed to the highest levels of the year in July, putting pressure on selling prices. They dropped somewhat in August before surging again..
More active listings make all the steps taken to compete among selling properties more critical. When listings were more scarce, (including now but at lower price points) buyers were compelled to reduce expectations on location, property condition, etc. They also may have pressure in competitive situations to remove conditions on their offers.
The sales rate has decreased by 10.7% compared to last month and is up 7.3% compared to this time last year, with a current pace of 3.7 units sold daily.
The following chart shows the daily sales volume for the past 3 months.
Buyers will still find multiple offer situations in some locations and price ranges, particularly at lower price points. They are highly advised to get prepared - have their mortgage preapproval ready before looking at homes, and be prepared to view homes via photos and virtual tours as soon as they reach the market. With interest rates being volatile, and mortgage qualification rules under review, locking in a rate is more important than ever. Speak with your agent to discuss the process to move forward.
Sellers should be considering getting on the market now or soon and working with their agent to set their home apart from competitive listings while reaching the widest possible audience.
If you are interested in seeing values for an area not shown or are interested in other figures, please comment below or contact me. As always, give me a call anytime if you would like to discuss this further without any obligation.
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About the Author
John Owen, Broker, RE/MAX Impact
John is an award-winning broker with RE/MAX Impact Realty and was their number-one agent in GCI for 2022.
Office - 905-240-6777
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The recent amalgamation of the former Quinte & District Association of Realtors (QDAR) and Northumberland Hills Association of Realtors (NHAR) with the Durham Region Association of Realtors (DRAR) has resulted in a new, larger board representing all of these regions called the Central Lakes Association of Realtors (CLAR).
The Multiple Listing Service (MLS) for all of these regions is now hosted by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) and will make the availability and sharing of MLS data across all of these areas much easier, to the benefit of buyers and sellers, and the real estate community.
The transitioning of the data to the shared MLS system will make statistics more reliable too, over time. For now, there have been some issues with the migration of historical data, which may affect the quality of that information. This issue will become less impactful as time passes and the historical information is less relevant.
Figures shown are for the following property types: detached, semi-detached, condo townhouse, condo apartment, link, att/row/townhouse, co-op apartment, detached condo and co-ownership apartment.