Durham Region Real Estate Blog - John Owen

Durham Region Real Estate Market Report

Durham Region Real Estate Daily Market Update

Durham Region Real Estate Market Report

Last update December 4, 2022 at 10:00am 

The real estate market in Durham Region is in its final few weeks of the fall season with a market dynamic that is now more buyer-friendly than it was last winter. 

With low inventory and high demand, prices normally would be increasing, but the interest rate and inflation situation has clearly cut into buyer budgets, allowing prices to stay in check.

Market Status Durham Region

There has been an easing of key metrics that measure the intensity of the market. Interest rates are higher, sales volume is lower, active listings are up, and multiple offer situations are down along with average sale prices.

Supply is low to moderate, with 2.0 months of inventory (MOI) for the entire region, and much higher levels in northern Durham communities. (This means that at the current pace of sales, with no new listings, all inventory would be sold within this time frame). 

Durham Region MOI

Historically, we haven't seen a true buyer's market across Durham Region since 2008, as shown in the chart above. In December of that year, months of inventory spiked to 9.

In November, transactions reported thus far had selling prices averaging 893,157 in Durham Region, with the average property selling at 99.7% of list price (SP/LP). This is a 0.1% decrease from last month and a 10.4% decrease from last year. It is also 27.4% lower than the peak in February (1,228,962). 

Home prices Durham Region

Here is a look at average detached home selling prices each day over the past 3 months:

Durham Region Detached Home Prices Daily


Durham Region Real Estate Home Prices

The average selling price of detached homes is just under 980,000 overall, as summarized in the above map. 

Townhouse sale prices are now averaging just under 800,000 across the region.

If you look at the top chart's selling price to list price ratios, some communities in south Durham still show sales at levels above list price. The following chart shows the trend - another key indicator of why the market had been so hot, and also illustrates how things are softening this fall.

Of particular note is how the sale price to list price ratio has dropped at a much sharper rate than selling prices. This is due to two factors. First, more listings are being pulled off the market after not getting the results they wanted on the offer date published (with a lower than market list price), then re-listed at a (more realistic) higher price with no offer date. Second, more listings are being posted with no offer date at all, and a list price that is more in line with recent comparable sales.

Durham Region Market Report Selling Price to List Price

More recently, SPLP has averaged near the 100% mark, indicating that the average property is selling for close to its list price. This shows that a common scenario is for there to be more than one offer on properties, signalling that bidding situations are working back into the mix - just not with the same intensity as last year.

Days on market (DOM) averaged 17.5 days. DOM is the number of days it takes for a property to be sold firm, or without conditions.


Should new listings rise at a pace that is faster than current sales, then there would be more inventory for the pool of buyers to choose from, which will have the effect of reducing the sale price to list price ratio, then months of inventory stat, which leans the market closer to a balanced market.

Active listings had jumped sharply in the summer months, providing more options for buyers. They have since eased back from those levels.

It also makes all the steps taken to compete among selling properties more important. When listings were scarce, buyers were compelled to reduce expectations on location, property condition, etc. Those properties that have issues should now see challenges in attracting strong offers and competition.

Durham-Region-Real-Estate-Active-Listings

The pace of sales was at 19.1 units per day - down 9.5% from last month and down 43.3% from the same period the previous year. Given that the average property sold at close to the list price, the slower pace of sales versus 2021 isn't solely due to decreased buyer demand. There is still a serious shortage of supply, although that factor has fluctuated as the year progresses.

Durham Region Real Estate Market Sales Volume

Buyers will continue to find multiple offers in some situations and price ranges, particularly at lower price points. They are highly advised to get prepared - have their mortgage preapproval ready before looking at homes, and be prepared to view homes via photos and virtual tours as soon as they reach the market. With interest rates rising, locking in a rate is more important than ever. Speak with your agent to discuss the process to move forward.

For those of you considering selling (or buying), brand makes a big difference. When marketing a property, the size of the company and its network combined with the productivity of its agents can make a huge difference in the outcome. The following chart shows listing sales by major brands over the last 3 months:

Here is a look at the market share for buyer agents, (also referred to as selling or co-operating).

Durham Region Real Estate co-operating market share



Sellers should be considering getting on the market now or soon, and working with their agent to set their home apart from competitive listings while reaching the widest possible audience.


If you are interested in seeing values for an area not shown or are interested in other figures, please comment below or contact me. As always, give me a call anytime if you would like to discuss this further without any obligation.


Other Regions


Northumberland Region Real Estate Market Report

Peterborough Region Real Estate Market Report

Durham Region Property Tax Rates - GTA and Ontario


Market Report - October 2022

About the Author


John Owen is an award-winning broker with RE/MAX Impact Realty in Courtice, ON.

Office - 905-240-6777


Member, Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

      

Comments:
Steve on Aug 12, 2019 12:23 PM posted:
So with the GM plant closure imminent and our bubble edging towards correction, Oshawa will surely decline much further in value in the coming years. Could this be a true statement?
John Owen on Aug 12, 2019 6:48 PM posted:
Hi Steve - news of the GM situation is from 2018, and has had very little impact on the local real estate market. Since the spring/summer of 2017, when the government imposed a number of measures to cool the market (along with changes to mortgage qualification rules that has prevented many families from being able to qualify to buy a home), the local market has been doing quite well. Given the relative shortage of supply in the GTA, combined with having some of the lowest prices in the region, the outlook for Oshawa's market is quite bright. Other factors helping bring demand to the local market include a high demand for student accommodation, expansion of the 407 and 412/418, and planned expansion of GO train service with more stations in both Oshawa and Clarington. Of course, no one can say what the market is going to do with certainty, but aside from economic factors that would trigger a wider slowdown (like a large interest rate increase, or recession), things look very good for Oshawa. John Owen, Broker RE/MAX Impact
Vish Patel on Jun 22, 2020 12:30 AM posted:
Hi! Do you think this pandemic and the super high unemployment rate which is over 10 percent will finally burst the property price bubble?
John Owen on Jun 22, 2020 10:10 AM posted:
Hi Vish - that's a good question, and the media has been speculating on this issue on a regular basis. Adding to the mix is CMHC forecasting up to an 18% drop in property values across Canada by mid-2021. They also tightened qualifying criteria for mortgages insured by them. My focus is on the local market, and current results don't align with the idea of the market going into a deep downturn. We did see a large drop in sales volume in April/May and a much smaller drop in prices. As of mid-June, both sales volume and prices had recovered to pre-COVID levels. COVID has created a pause in our market. The economy continues to open back up, and unemployment levels will come back down. Read my daily market updates to see more, and watch for a big turnaround in the June 2020 results.
Tifanny on Aug 30, 2020 10:00 AM posted:
Hello John! Why is Bowmanville which is further more east than Oshawa selling homes for more money ?
John Owen, Broker RE/MAX Impact on Aug 30, 2020 10:53 AM posted:
Hi Tiffany, Bowmanville (and Clarington overall) has higher selling prices than Oshawa overall, largely because there are neighbourhoods within central and south Oshawa that typically have smaller and older homes with much lower selling prices. These areas contain a lot of houses too, so the sales in those areas bring the averages down overall. If we looked at more specific areas or home types and ages, we would get a different picture.
Aaron on Nov 20, 2020 9:51 AM posted:
As of Nov 20, 2020, the Durham Region Real Estate - Residential numbers from 2020-11-01 to 2020-11-16 seems to have an issue. I am looking at Brock. Under "All Types", I see 16 units with avg selling price of 909,094. Under Detached, I see 13 units with an average selling price of 730,092. I don't see any condos or townhomes for Brock, but those extra 3 townhomes/condos would've had to sell for millions to make these figures work. I really appreciate this data that you have put together. It is a fantastic source of current info for the Durham Region real estate market.
John Owen, Broker RE/MAX Impact on Nov 20, 2020 10:27 AM posted:
Hi Aaron, thank you for the positive feedback! In the sales data that you mentioned for Brock, the numbers are correct. The 3 transactions not shown are for types of property not summarized in the chart. In this case, there was one farm and two parcels of vacant land. I provide the data for the most common types of listings in the graphic, as they are the most relevant to most sellers and buyers. There are even more types that listings could be categorized that do not have enough sales volume to be statistically relevant.
M. Ainslie on Dec 21, 2020 7:45 AM posted:
John Owen, thank you for the stats. Very much appreciated. I've been carefully watching the market (with your help) and am very grateful in my decision to have held off for a year once Covid-19 hit early March 2020. It was a gamble, especially with CMHC's dire predictions. Two of my neighbours panicked and sold at the height of the lowest point in 2020. The market in Durham (the new quasi-Toronto) has taken off! Definitely a seller's market with just 0.4 MOI (Whitby). A detached home that isn't inches away from its neighbour, with a long driveway, income potential, close to great schooling, the 401/407/ GO station, and in a courtyard seems now to be all the more valuable. I've heard though it is Durham residents and not necessarily TO people. Durham people are eager to move up to the 800K + homes. Knowing the area, loving the community, needing parking, a quieter area, & the best schools. Toronto people haven't quite realized the full charm of Whitby. (SHHHH). John- Happy Holiday wishes. Again, my thanks and hats off to you for providing these stats. Take care and stay safe. All the best in 2021.
Mike on Dec 22, 2020 10:54 AM posted:
Hi John, great website and great info! keep up the great work. Just had some questions: 1. From your experience are these locals moving up to bigger places or is it out of towners buying because its relatively cheaper? 2. Do precon houses make sense in this market? from what i have seen they have already priced up factoring in future price increases. Thanks & Happy Holidays.
John Owen, Broker RE/MAX Impact on Dec 22, 2020 11:04 AM posted:
Hi Mike, thanks for the positive feedback! Regarding your questions, 1. There are a lot of people in both situations buying in Durham. A lot of local move-up buyers are looking at rural properties that offer more space and privacy, while a lot of GTA buyers are looking at Durham for value as one of the most affordable areas within commute distance to the city. 2. Pre-construction can be a great option with inventory being so scarce (no bidding wars!), provided you work with an experienced agent that can help with determining comparative value between builders and locations, as well as helping negotiate a fair contract. Builder agreements are notoriously complex, and can be loaded with hidden costs and fees. Also, builder sales agents may not be licensed Realtors, who are held to strict standards of conduct.
Dilshat on Dec 22, 2020 9:20 PM posted:
Hi John, Thank for for the great information, it did enhance my confidence on my job, recently I did reallocate to the bank in durham region as mortgage specialist, do you have any suggestion how can i build up my network with realtors, broker and potential customers in area?
John Owen, Broker RE/MAX Impact on Dec 23, 2020 11:04 AM posted:
Hi Dilshat. Glad to hear that you are finding my information helpful. My advice for building your business network is to reach out via social networks, events, and by doing the best you can with each client. Best of luck in the new year!
Dhana on Jul 13, 2021 2:37 PM posted:
Hi, thanks for the amazing stats. I would like to have your suggestion on how the market will be 1 year from now in the AJAX. Do you think the price for the detached houses will stay the same or go up/down. Thank you.
Prat on Oct 27, 2021 8:52 AM posted:
I am thinking of buying a stack townhouse type property in oshawa and would like to hold it for atleast 2 years. Until end of 2023. Do you think the property price will stay the same of go up in next 2-3 years? Also, what's the average price of such a property with 1100sq ft? Thanks
John Owen, Broker RE/MAX Impact on Oct 27, 2021 10:25 AM posted:
Hi Prat, no one can say for certain what will happen looking forward, but market conditions for Durham Region, in terms of inventory and demand, are very strong, and a substantial increase in inventory would be required to meet that demand in the coming few years. Economic conditions could have a negative impact on the market, through higher interest rates and then there is government policy (remember 2017?). I will reach out to you regarding your specific property questions.
Jonathan on Nov 6, 2021 2:44 AM posted:
Hi John, love the way you break out all this information into easily understandable charts! My one question is this: I typically see a distinction made between townhouses and semi-detached houses. Is there a reason you don't make that distinction? Is the data/sale prices between the two similar enough to not worry about it? Thanks!
John Owen, Broker RE/MAX Impact on Nov 6, 2021 11:57 AM posted:
Hi Jonathan. Glad to hear that you find the reports useful! Regarding your question on semi-detached homes, there are a number of different property types that I don't summarize, simply because there isn't enough sales data or interest from my audience to justify breaking down all of them on a frequent basis. When I work with a client on a property that is in one of these categories, then I will research accordingly.
Josh Stam on Jan 26, 2022 10:41 PM posted:
Oshawa is currently still under priced compared to the rest of the GTA and people just started noticing. The city changed a lot for the better and it certainty deserves more attention.
Ray on Aug 15, 2022 10:05 AM posted:
Are you able to look at the previous months to predict what the last quarter of 2022 will look like on the market? Also, How long does it take for you to compile all of these stats daily? Great layout. So comprehensive! Thanks John.
John Owen, Broker RE/MAX Impact on Aug 15, 2022 11:07 AM posted:
Hi Ray, Thank you for the kind words! Although it is possible to predict the future of the market, I tend to focus on recent historical numbers and events to help my clients in their current situations. As we have seen with the recent downturn (and the one in 2017), major economic events tend to affect the market very rapidly. Recently, it was changes in federal government policy affecting interest rates. As for the time I spend putting all this together, it varies, but it does take a lot of my time!

Post Your Comment: